morageology.com :: 2021 Glacier Area and Volume Update

2021 Glacier Area and Volume Update

NOTE: The data presented here are preliminary and will be updated later in early 2023.

Mount Rainier is the most glaciated volcano in the Cascade Range of the western United States and has more glacial ice on its edifice than all other volcanoes in the Cascade Range combined. Measuring rates of glacial ice loss during warming climates are critical to understanding the future impacts to riparian areas downslope of the glaciers, sediment production to braided rivers, aquatic impacts due to increasing stream temperatures, and many other important areas for park resource management. Glacial area has been delineated many times in the last century; most importantly in 1896, 1913, 1971, 1994, 2009, and, most recently, in 2015. Each of these extents represents a snapshot of the surface area of the volcano occupied by glacial ice during those years and provides an opportunity to visualize the health of the glaciers in the park over time.

Using aerially derived Structure from Motion (SfM) data acquired in September 2021, as well as other satellite and aerial imagery, glacier area for each of the 29 named glacial features is updated for Mount Rainier and presented here. From these source data, we have mapped not only the extent of ice but estimate the volume of ice from methods developed by other researchers in the past. Overall, our data shows a continuation of gradual yet accelerating loss of glacial ice at Mount Rainier, resulting in significant changes in regional ice volume over the last century. Regional climate change is affecting all glacial features at Mount Rainier, but mostly those smaller cirque glaciers and discontinuous glaciers on the south aspect of the volcano.

This page has been provided as quick reference for the latest glacial extent and volume respository for Mount Rainier as of the 2021 delineation. Links are provided to the following: (1) Some key conclusions from the 2021 study; (2) The poster presented at the 2022 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting in Denver, Colorado; (3) A Natural Resource Report (NRR) detailing the 2021 delineation effort; (4) Overall glacial extent and volume estimates; (5) Change in glacial area and volume between 2015 and 2016; and (6) Links to detailed information on individual glaciers.

Key Conclusions from the 2021 Study

As of 2021, Mount Rainier has 28 named glacial and perennial snow features (a decrease of one from 2015).
Analysis of changes in glacier extent and volume at Mount Rainier continues to show an overall loss of glacial ice and perennial snowfields over the last 125 years:
- Extent: -53.983 km² (-20.843 mi²), a reduction of 41.75% in area between 1896 and 2021.
- Volume: -2.822 km³ (-0.677 mi³), a reduction of 47.84% in volume between 1896 and 2021.
Despite a relatively gradual decrease in glacial area, glacial volume loss is accelerating as glaciers not only retreat but also thin from the top down.
- Average rates of area loss:
  - -0.432 km²/yr (-0.167 mi²/yr) between 1896 and 2021 (125 years).
  - -0.572 km²/yr (-0.221 mi²/yr) between 2015 and 2021 (6 years).
- Average rates of volume loss:
  - -0.023 km³/yr (-0.005 mi³/yr) between 1896 and 2021 (125 years).
  - -0.024 km³/yr (-0.006 mi³/yr) between 2015 and 2021 (6 years).
Unabated regional climate warming will continue to result in loss of glacial area and volume.
Several smaller, lower-elevation (cirque) glaciers have been lost in the last few decades. This survey has officially removed the Stevens Glacier from the park's inventory. Several features including the Flett, Inter, Pyramid, Sarvent, and Van Trump Glaciers are in a critical state.
The loss of glacial ice at Mount Rainier will have severe negative implications for the health of aquatic organisms, freshwater usage, dam operations, and geologic hazards in the region.

Publications

There are two publications that are developed through this study:

POSTER:
Beason, S.R., T.R. Kenyon, R.P. Jost, and L.J. Walker, 2022, A vanishing landscape: Current trends for the glaciers of Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, USA: Poster 23-9, Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 54, No. 5, doi: 10.1130/abs/2022AM-381984.
NATURAL RESOURCE REPORT:
Beason, S.R., T.R. Kenyon, R.P. Jost, and L.J. Walker, In Development, Change in glacial extent and volume at Mount Rainier National Park from 1896 to 2021: National Park Service Natural Resource Report NPS/MORA/NRR—2022/XXX, National Park Service, Fort Collins, CO.

In Development - Check back in a few months... when the document is completed, it will be posted here.

Overall Glacial Extent and Volume Estimates (as of 2021)

Glacier	Slope (°)	Length (ft)	Area (ft²)	Area (mi²)	Area (km²)	Basal Shear Stress (lb/ft²)	D&K Method Used	Volume, D&K Method (ft³)	Volume, D&K Method (mi³)	Volume, D&K Method (km³)	Volume, Nylen Method (ft³)	Volume, Nylen Method (mi³)	Volume, Nylen Method (km³)
Carbon	25.05	27,562	75,879,959.642	2.722	7.049	3,119.845	B	10,781,180,244.165	0.073	0.305	12,821,299,014.886	0.087	0.363
Columbia Crest	10.78	2,270	1,861,723.348	0.067	0.173	2,087.963	A	107,290,111.214	0.001	0.003	82,802,563.515	0.001	0.002
Cowlitz	24.99	19,114	39,434,604.253	1.415	3.664	2,910.584	B	5,236,316,572.729	0.036	0.148	5,264,444,684.918	0.036	0.149
Edmunds	25.29	6,970	12,400,678.316	0.445	1.152	2,575.345	A	904,081,845.568	0.006	0.026	1,091,553,396.650	0.007	0.031
Emmons	29.41	25,186	116,754,877.973	4.188	10.847	3,279.250	B	15,635,137,312.560	0.106	0.443	23,038,448,643.397	0.157	0.652
Flett	20.61	2,429	3,906,633.893	0.140	0.363	2,270.220	A	246,809,187.349	0.002	0.007	226,887,659.526	0.002	0.006
Fryingpan	24.09	6,494	32,185,463.902	1.154	2.990	2,846.419	A	2,641,098,855.899	0.018	0.075	3,993,709,544.846	0.027	0.113
Ingraham	31.63	17,002	32,876,666.036	1.179	3.054	2,873.990	B	3,696,481,500.226	0.025	0.105	4,110,801,932.687	0.028	0.116
Inter	25.57	4,858	5,731,408.478	0.206	0.532	2,373.629	A	379,717,700.935	0.003	0.011	382,115,484.305	0.003	0.011
Kautz	35.54	13,939	16,548,442.309	0.594	1.537	2,685.162	B	1,641,134,932.774	0.011	0.046	1,616,102,374.220	0.011	0.046
Liberty Cap	29.69	8,923	22,234,859.657	0.798	2.066	2,751.418	B	2,483,720,077.459	0.017	0.070	2,415,049,066.141	0.016	0.068
Muir Snowfield	18.14	6,283	8,862,766.266	0.318	0.823	2,472.187	A	619,787,710.732	0.004	0.018	691,279,100.882	0.005	0.020
Nisqually	30.40	20,275	43,744,056.014	1.569	4.064	2,958.273	B	5,179,369,296.679	0.035	0.147	6,061,904,516.909	0.041	0.172
N Mowich	27.81	14,678	52,991,878.815	1.901	4.923	3,010.983	B	6,754,530,781.448	0.046	0.191	7,868,353,382.432	0.053	0.223
Ohanapecosh	21.75	2,851	6,626,951.544	0.238	0.616	2,402.985	A	447,024,964.863	0.003	0.013	465,528,148.506	0.003	0.013
Paradise	22.84	2,429	6,233,001.888	0.224	0.579	2,389.400	A	417,267,721.667	0.003	0.012	428,299,390.375	0.003	0.012
Puyallup	21.22	14,045	33,520,169.301	1.202	3.114	2,852.375	B	4,950,184,611.729	0.034	0.140	4,220,613,866.449	0.029	0.120
Pyramid	20.87	4,066	2,158,338.951	0.077	0.201	2,132.223	A	126,685,105.337	0.001	0.004	101,242,277.572	0.001	0.003
Russell	23.14	9,187	29,041,836.841	1.042	2.698	2,813.415	B	3,949,837,408.211	0.027	0.112	3,472,737,327.343	0.024	0.098
Sarvent	25.14	2,482	4,094,858.541	0.147	0.380	2,289.659	A	260,214,563.712	0.002	0.007	241,882,302.169	0.002	0.007
S Mowich	32.61	20,117	38,976,665.963	1.398	3.621	2,929.643	B	4,394,049,815.687	0.030	0.124	5,181,476,815.201	0.035	0.147
S Tahoma	28.47	10,824	20,932,035.025	0.751	1.945	2,730.435	B	2,382,552,667.397	0.016	0.067	2,224,655,463.292	0.015	0.063
Stevens	19.72	1,901	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	A	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Success	31.10	3,907	4,178,999.401	0.150	0.388	2,308.177	A	266,232,056.742	0.002	0.008	248,666,639.244	0.002	0.007
Tahoma	29.88	23,074	68,807,650.841	2.468	6.392	3,102.043	B	8,631,857,893.933	0.059	0.244	11,223,934,890.653	0.076	0.318
Van Trump	25.89	4,646	1,257,809.291	0.045	0.117	2,021.717	A	69,046,569.422	0.000	0.002	48,577,516.803	0.000	0.001
Whitman	17.49	10,666	19,803,961.928	0.710	1.840	2,691.081	B	3,247,873,967.010	0.022	0.092	2,063,203,269.132	0.014	0.058
Wilson	29.89	6,917	15,725,778.567	0.564	1.461	2,652.796	A	1,180,774,962.091	0.008	0.033	1,507,827,698.851	0.010	0.043
Winthrop	28.78	26,347	94,022,219.140	3.373	8.735	3,202.758	B	12,466,112,464.678	0.085	0.353	17,161,397,908.186	0.117	0.486

Totals (2021)

Extent:
- 810,794,296.125 ft²
- 29.083 mi²
- 75.325 km²
Volume:
- Average (Official Estimate):
  - 108,675,582,890.653 ft³
  - 0.738 mi³
  - 3.078 km³
- Driedger & Kennard (1986) Method:
  - 99,096,370,902.214 ft³
  - 0.673 mi³
  - 2.806 km³
- Nylen (2001) Method:
  - 118,254,794,879.093 ft³
  - 0.803 mi³
  - 3.349 km³

Notes:

A or B in column "D&K Method Used" refers to either the "long equation" (or Basal Shear Stress equation) or "power equation" that is used to calculate extent, as defined in Driedger and Kennard (1986).
The "official" estimate of glacial volume is an average of the Driedger and Kennard (1986) and Nylen (2001) methods
Stevens Glacier was removed from the park glacier inventory in 2021 and thus has no extent or volume associated with it.

Change in Glacial Extent and Volume between 2015 and 2021 (6 years)

Glacier	Area, % Loss	Volume, % Loss, D&K Method	Volume, % Loss, Nylen Method	Volume, % Loss, Average	North or South Facing	Summit or Cirque
Carbon	-2.857%	-3.155%	-3.865%	-3.510%	N	C
Columbia Crest	-4.095%	-4.591%	-5.528%	-5.059%	N	S
Cowlitz	-8.188%	-9.015%	-10.968%	-9.992%	S	C
Edmunds	-8.014%	-8.962%	-10.739%	-9.850%	N	C
Emmons	-1.634%	-1.806%	-2.216%	-2.011%	N	S
Flett	-10.529%	-11.755%	-14.041%	-12.898%	N	C
Fryingpan	-7.842%	-8.770%	-10.511%	-9.641%	N	C
Ingraham	1.565%	1.732%	2.135%	1.933%	S	S
Inter	-7.231%	-8.091%	-9.705%	-8.898%	N	C
Kautz	-4.569%	-5.041%	-6.162%	-5.602%	S	S
Liberty Cap	-3.414%	-3.769%	-4.614%	-4.192%	N	S
Muir Snowfield	-5.919%	-6.628%	-7.963%	-7.296%	S	C
N Mowich	-3.045%	-3.362%	-4.119%	-3.741%	N	C
Nisqually	-4.299%	-4.744%	-5.801%	-5.272%	S	S
Ohanapecosh	-7.969%	-8.911%	-10.679%	-9.795%	S	C
Paradise	-5.355%	-5.999%	-7.212%	-6.605%	S	C
Puyallup	-4.411%	-4.867%	-5.951%	-5.409%	S	C
Pyramid	-23.534%	-26.037%	-30.575%	-28.306%	S	C
Russell	-6.718%	-7.403%	-9.025%	-8.214%	N	C
S Mowich	-16.327%	-18.156%	-21.528%	-19.842%	S	C
S Tahoma	-3.837%	-4.235%	-5.182%	-4.709%	S	C
Sarvent	-2.856%	-3.154%	-3.864%	-3.509%	N	C
Stevens	-100.000%	-100.000%	-100.000%	-100.000%	S	C
Success	-17.369%	-19.301%	-22.853%	-21.077%	S	C
Tahoma	-5.814%	-6.410%	-7.823%	-7.116%	S	S
Van Trump	-33.578%	-36.863%	-42.674%	-39.769%	S	C
Whitman	-5.103%	-5.628%	-6.876%	-6.252%	S	C
Wilson	-6.491%	-7.266%	-8.724%	-7.995%	S	C
Winthrop	-2.691%	-2.972%	-3.642%	-3.307%	N	S

Some Interpretations of this data:

The Ingraham Glacier did not actually have an increase in area... the positive change is due to a mapping error in 2015.
South facing glaciers lost about 2.91x the extent of north facing glaciers (North: -5.08%, South: -14.78%)
South facing glaciers lost about 2.56x the volume of north facing glaciers (North: -6.50%, South: -16.65%)
Glaciers that start lower on the mountain lost about 4.38x as much extent as those that start near or on the summit (Summit: -3.12%, Cirque: -13.67%)
Glaciers that start lower on the mountain lost about 3.99x as much volume as those that start near or on the summit (Summit: -3.90%, Cirque: -15.59%)
Details:
- Extent:
  - North-Facing Summit: -2.96%
  - South-Facing Summit: -3.28%
  - North-Facing Cirque: -6.14%
  - South-Facing Cirque: -18.31%
- Volume:
  - North-Facing Summit: -3.64%
  - South-Facing Summit: -4.01%
  - North-Facing Cirque: -7.53%
  - South-Facing Cirque: -20.54%

Detailed Information on Individual Glaciers

Carbon Glacier
Columbia Crest Glacier
Cowlitz Glacier
Edmunds Glacier
Emmons Glacier
Flett Glacier
Fryingpan Glacier
Ingraham Glacier
Inter Glacier
Kautz Glacier
Liberty Cap Glacier
Muir Snowfield
Nisqually Glacier
North Mowich Glacier
Ohanapecosh Glacier
Paradise Glacier
Puyallup Glacier
Pyramid Glacier
Russell Glacier
Sarvent Glacier
South Mowich Glacier
South Tahoma Glacier
Stevens Glacier
Success Glacier
Tahoma Glacier
Van Trump Glaciers
Whitman Glacier
Wilson Glacier
Winthrop Glacier

References

Beason, S.R., 2017, Change in glacial extent at Mount Rainier National Park from 1896-2015: Natural Resource Report NPS/MORA/NRR-2017/1472, National Park Service, 98 p.
Beason, S.R., T.R. Kenyon, R.P. Jost, and L.J. Walker, 2022, A vanishing landscape: Current trends for the glaciers of Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, USA: Poster 23-9, Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 54, No. 5, doi: 10.1130/abs/2022AM-381984.
George, J.L. and S.R. Beason, 2017, Dramatic changes to glacial volume and extent since the late 19th century at Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, USA: Poster #158-6, Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 49, No. 6, doi: 10.1130/abs/2017AM-299694.
Driedger, C.L. and P.M. Kennard, 1986, Ice volumes on Cascade Volcanoes: Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Three Sisters, and Mount Shasta: Professional Paper 1365, United States Geological Survey, 38 p.
Nylen, T.H., 2004, Spatial and temporal variations of glaciers (1913-1994) on Mt. Rainier and the relation with climate: M.S. Thesis, Portland State University, 128 p.